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Prediction for CME (2023-08-30T22:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-08-30T22:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26678/-1 CME Note: Partial halo seen in SOHO with clearer fronts more to the South and the NE. Its source is possibly the eruption of a long filament from NE to SW and centered around N15W15 seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-08-30T20:30Z, with post-eruptive arcades and dimming extending towards SE and encompassing the disk center. No clear CME arrival observed. However, there may be a weak arrival combined with the high speed stream observed at L1 on 2023-09-01 or 02. The flux rope is possibly seen in the solar wind magnetic field components, accompanied by a drop in temperature, around 2023-09-02T18:00Z. Overall this is a weak arrival signature. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-02T18:00Z (-8.0h, +12.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Prediction Method Note: Please enter the following information for your prediction: BoM ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Grid: 256x30x90 Resolution: low Ambient settings: Ejecta settings: WSA version: 2.2 GONG: CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes:Lead Time: 44.25 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-08-31T21:45Z |
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